October 28, 2021

Naughty Books

Naughty But Law & Legal

US Election Odds – Daily Betting Updates & Tips in Betfair’s Live Blog

Table of Contents


This result vindicates the betting signals

A result is imminent, at least in a mathematical sense. Biden is closing in on the states that will take him well past the 270 winning line in the electoral college.

He’s now trading at his lowest ever odds – just 1.031/33. Bettors evidently don’t fancy Trump’s chances in court.

We can answer the question that has waged all year among the political forecasting community. Was the market right? Or was it skewed towards Trump?

I was always in the latter camp but, whilst vindicated in laying Trump for this over many years, I was wrong. When polls closed, Biden was 1.51/2 chance. He’s winning like one. Not the 1.251/4 as I priced him.

Likewise, the electoral college handicap lines were bang on the mark. Biden’s par line was between between 301 and 320. He looks set for 306 but, were one of these last states go against the favourite, he could slip outside of the range either way.

Most notably, the favourite looks like winning in 49 out of 50 states. A Biden win in Georgia would be the exception.


Biden on the brink

The election is probably within hours of being officially called in favour of Joe Biden. He’s taken the lead in Georgia and looks sure to pass Trump in Pennsylvania soon. Here’s the latest odds about the favourite in the five remaining swing states.

Arizona: Biden 1.261/4
Georgia: Biden 1.091/11
Pennsylvania: Biden 1.061/18
North Carolina: Trump 1.162/13
Nevada: Biden 1.061/18

That probably won’t be the end of it. Trump is claiming he’s been cheated and launching lawsuits in multiple states. These are very worrying times for American democracy.

I’m generally waiting for the full results before writing any deep takeaways. It isn’t clear just how far the polls were out. As these late votes pile up for Biden, it looks like he will win nationally by 6-7%, so within the margin of error.

However that doesn’t explain why some states went much stronger for Trump than expected. My instinct is that the explanation will involve Trump impressively getting his core vote out and attracting other similar non-voting types to the polls. That also helped Republicans down ballot.

Largely white, non-college educated, living in rural counties. Wisconsin has the most surprising numbers and is also largely comprised of such counties. Even more so Iowa, which also swung strongly for Trump.

The Trump campaign boasted about their ground game and their social media army is fearsome. Biden did not campaign effectively in-person due to the pandemic. This was a known worry.


Odds project Trump to lose by his 2016 winning margin

What an extraordinary, exhilarating and exhausting couple of days it has been! The number of US election addicts outside the country has surely soared.

To many, the idea of live scoreboards, updating county by county, is a new experience. I’m sure bettors who have been glued to their screens can now completely understand why I became obsessed with betting on US politics after watching their 2004 election!

Their scoring system is perfect for creating uncertainty and betting volatility. The markets were as frenetic and irrational as ever.

Biden looks certain to win at odds of 1.11/10 but I shall leave wider takeaway pieces until the result is confirmed.

My bets are in a great position, and slightly better as a result of the two in-play trades published on Twitter. However next time, I may be tempted to cash out before polls close.

Why? Because ideally, you want a full bank and clear head once the action goes live. As we saw with Trump’s victory in 2016, this is where the best value trading opportunities lie.

For those paying attention to the breakdown of votes in each state, simply trading the swings was a goldmine. Here’s a few highlights.

On the Next President market, Trump’s odds fell to 1.241/4 early, when looking sure to take Florida and Ohio. Yes he was in front, but this over-reaction failed to take into account more Biden-friendly states to come.

In Michigan and Wisconsin, Republicans traded down to 1.330/100 and 1.271/4 respectively. Both are now called for Biden, although remain subject to Trump legal challenges and therefore open for betting.

Georgia is the state betting story of the night. Republicans were matched down to the minimum odds of 1.011/100. Democrats have been as low as 1.3130/100 – they’re currently 1.364/11 to pull off a huge in-play upset.

It is possible that we’ll see another turnaround from 1.011/100. The Arizona market has been all over the place. An early gamble saw Republicans crash to 1.232/9 on the basis of assumptions that Trump’s better results elsewhere would also apply to the Sun Belt.

It never looked like going that way and, after Fox News prematurely called it for Biden, Democrats were matched at 1.011/100. They are still counting, however, and Biden has drifted out to 1.364/11 amid uncertainty about how the late votes will break.

Pennsylvania is another cracker. Republicans went down to 1.232/9 before Biden started storming back with late votes. His odds fell to a low of 1.11/10 last night and are currently 1.121/8.

North Carolina has also become interesting from nowhere. Republicans were matched at 1.041/25 but drifted to 1.321/3. Right now, they’re back into 1.21/5.

The common theme in all cases was that unevenness in counting. Some states counted early votes first, others last. It is normal for Democrats to fall behind, because the big urban areas take longer to count and come in last. It is also normal for the betting market to over-react to early results.

How does this end? I think these state betting markets have the right favourites. My prediction is Biden will land the odds in Nevada, Arizona, Pennsylvania and Georgia, but fall short in North Carolina.

That would produce a 306-232 advantage in the electoral college. A repeat of the exact score Trump beat Clinton by in 2016.


Thursday morning odds update

Max Liu has penned the following odds update on the Next President situation. Biden stands as the 1.192/11 favourite but with reports of legal challenges from Trump, 6.05/1 there is the potential for movement and more drama.


Late votes propel Biden to lowest odds yet

Joe Biden is now trading around his lowest odds of the cycle. He’s been matched at 1.261/4 at recent minutes, as it appears that the late vote has swung overwhelmingly to him in key states.

There are still several states left to count but here’s the betting position in each of them.

Pennsylvania still has a third of the vote to declare. Biden will need to win around two-thirds of that. A tall order on paper but as we saw in the other two Mid-West states, these early votes are swinging to the challenger on that kind of scale, and tend to be from very pro-Democrat, urban areas.


Extraordinary night on the Exchange

Donald Trump declared victory in the US presidential election this morning even though the race for the White House remains too close to call.

Trump made baseless claims of voter fraud and vowed to take his case to the US Supreme Court.

Joe Biden’s campaign team hit back calling the president’s claims “outrageous, unprecedented and incorrect”.

After an extraordinary night of betting on the Exchange, which saw favouritism swing from Biden to Trump and back again, Biden is once again the favourite to be America’s next president.

At the time of writing, Biden is 1.584/7 with Donald Trump 2.77/4, with nearly £425m matched.

Biden has 224 electoral colleges votes and Trump 213. The magic number for victory is 270.

Six battle ground states remain outstanding. Wisconsin is expected in the next few hours and Biden is odds-on to win.

It could be days, however, before we get the results for Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Michigan. All are crucial to the outcome of the presidential election.


Don’t expect a result tonight

Whatever the result, those that predicted history would repeat itself have been proven correct. The Presidency will be determined in the Mid-West, by a close margin after a nail-biting finish.

As things stand, Biden will fail to gain any of his longer-range targets. He looks likely to pick up Arizona at 8% up with 76% reporting. Nebraska’s second congressional district looks good too.

If so, he’s gained 12 electoral college votes on Clinton’s tally. I wouldn’t say he’s certain to win Nevada given how well Trump has performed, but the Democrat is favourite. Take those three states and Biden will be 26 electoral college votes from the presidency.

The three critical states are Michigan (16 ECVs), Wisconsin (10) and Pennsylvania (20). So Michigan plus one of other would get Biden to the 270 winning line.

Trump currently leads in them all but that may yet prove misleading. Early votes, assumed to favour Democrats, are yet to be counted in Pennsylvania and they make up a majority of votes yet to be counted in Michigan. In all three, Democrats are liable to run up big numbers in the major urban eras.

For me, it is is genuinely too close to call. This is going to come down to tiny margins in those three states. Possibly recounts and legal challenges. This could be a very long week.


Polls are closing – here’s the times for early states

The first polls have just closed in Indiana and Kentucky. Results will begin to arrive soon. Here’s the timetable for significant states that will start reporting in the first couple of hours. They should give us some very strong signals about the wider picture.

(UK Time)

0000: Florida, Georgia, Virginia, South Carolina
0030: North Carolina, Ohio
0100: Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Texas, New Hampshire, Maine
0200: Arizona, Wisconsin

I’ll be analysing the results as they come in live on the @BetfairExchange Twitter feed and posting updates throughout the night. Good luck!


The state of play

So where do we stand, heading into election day? I don’t know if any more polls are due but, realistically, would it change anything in the betting at this stage, when polls have barely moved the market at all throughout?

No, this unique election has produced a historic stand-off between backers of each candidate regarding the validity of polls. A bet on Trump is a bet on the biggest polling miss of the 21st century, by a big margin. The odds imply that world-changing outcome is a 34% chance.

99M have voted already and I reckon we’re headed for around 160M in total. Yougov have polled both early and in-day voters. I reckon this equates to a Biden win by around 13M votes. That’s 10M more than Clinton’s popular vote margin and equates to a landslide in anyone’s language.

Yougov’s final vote share is also very close to the one I’ve been trailing for months – Biden 53.5%, Trump 44.5%. A nine point victory. I’m pleased we concur, because they’ve performed very well in UK and German elections recently.

So far as winning the electoral college is concerned, it is extremely hard to make a case against Biden. He needs 270 and I can’t get him below 273. That total even gives Trump an unlikely win in Nevada.

To reiterate the point I’ve made persistently from the outset, this is all about the trio of Mid-West states Trump gained by wafer-thin margins in 2016. Helped significantly by a combination of much stronger third parties than usual and depressed Democrat turnout in diverse, liberal, young cities. Neither factor applies this time.

Of those, Michigan and Wisconsin are in the bag. He’s miles ahead and that isn’t even the slightest surprise. So it all comes down to Pennsylvania – for which he’s rated 85% and 94% likely to win by Fivethirtyeight and Yougov/Economist respectively.

Once we get below Pennsylvania on Biden’s target list, things do get harder. Arizona, Florida, North Carolina and Georgia are all still ‘toss-ups’. My view is he’ll win them all narrowly but defeats would be no great surprise.

I’ve not backed any of them individually, preferring instead to target the six electoral college handicap lines. See the tweet below for a link to all 20 of my ‘Bet of the Day’ pieces.


Monday’s polls round-up

Numbers from pollsters rated B or better by Fivethirtyeight

NATIONAL

SURVEYUSA (A): BIDEN +8
IBD/TIPP (A/B): BIDEN +4
QUINNIPIAC (B+): BIDEN +11
YOUGOV (B): BIDEN +10

PENNSYLVANIA

MARIST (A+): BIDEN +5
MONMOUTH (A+): BIDEN +7

ARIZONA

MARIST (A+): TIED
DATA ORBITAL (A-): BIDEN +1

FLORIDA

QUINNIPIAC (B+): BIDEN +5

OHIO

QUINNIPIAC (B+): BIDEN +4

IOWA

PPP (B): BIDEN +1

GEORGIA

LANDMARK (B): TRUMP +4


When will election markets be settled?

Lots of Betfair customers have been asking this question and obviously, there is a great deal of uncertainty regarding when the result will be called.

“In this piece, Betfair’s chief politics trader Joe Lee explains the three scenarios”: https://betting.betfair.com/politics/us-politics/us-election-betfair-market-settlement-scenarios-021120-51.html, which depend on how quickly votes are counted tomorrow, states declare official results and other signals emerge.


Sunday’s polls round-up

Numbers from pollsters rated B or better by Fivethirtyeight

NATIONAL

NBC/WSJ (A-): BIDEN +10
IBD/TIPP (A/B): BIDEN +6
YOUGOV (B): BIDEN +10

PENNSYLVANIA

ABC/WAPO (A+): BIDEN +7
NYT/SIENA (A+): BIDEN +6
EMERSON (A-): BIDEN +5

FLORIDA

ABC/WAPO (A+): TRUMP +2
NYT/SIENA (A+): BIDEN +3
EMERSON (A-): BIDEN +6

ARIZONA

NYT/SIENA (A+): BIDEN +6
EMERSON (A-): BIDEN +2

MICHIGAN

EMERSON (A-): BIDEN +7
EPIC/MRA (B+): BIDEN +7

WISCONSIN

NYT/SIENA (A+): BIDEN +11

NORTH CAROLINA

EMERSON (A-): TIED
YOUGOV (B): BIDEN +4

OHIO

EMERSON (A-): BIDEN +1

GEORGIA

EMERSON (A-): TRUMP +1
YOUGOV (B): BIDEN +1

TEXAS

EMERSON (A-): TRUMP +1
YOUGOV (B): TRUMP +2

IOWA

EMERSON (A-): TRUMP +1

NEVADA

EMERSON (A-): BIDEN +2


Saturday’s polls round-up

Numbers from pollsters rated B or better by Fivethirtyeight

NATIONAL

FOX (A-): BIDEN +7
IBD/TIPP (A/B): BIDEN +6
ANGUS REID (B+): BIDEN +8

PENNSYLVANIA

MUHLENBURG (A+): BIDEN +5

IOWA

SELZER (A+): TRUMP +7

WISCONSIN

EMERSON (A-): BIDEN +7

NEBRASKA-CD2

EMERSON (A-): BIDEN +3

MINNESOTA

PPP (B): BIDEN +11


How previous US elections stood at this stage

The Next President betting remains stuck in the same range as for the past ten days – Biden is currently 1.4840/85, he’s been moving between 1.47-1.53.

A look at the five previous US elections this century shows just how different this year’s betting trends are.

Betfair wasn’t around for the first of those in 2000, but here’s the average price traded of both candidates at this three-day stage in the last four.

2016: Clinton 1.3, Trump 4.39
2012: Obama 1.3, Romney 4.22
2008: Obama 1.13, McCain 7.88
2004: Bush 1.78, Kerry 2.29

Obviously, Biden’s superior polls make his current odds stand out as remarkably generous.

Another striking point is that in both 2008 and 2012, the polls under-estimated Obama. This rather destroys the idea that polls are ‘biased towards Democrats’.

One possible explanation involves the point I made in the latest episode of Politics…Only Bettor about differential motivation and turnout.

The 2012 in particular was universally acknowledged to be all about each side getting their vote out. Obama had a famously impressive ground and data targeting game. His coalition delivered twice and duly outperformed the polls, twice.

Clinton failure in that regard is why she lost. Black turnout fell, ruinously in key districts. The Left of the Obama coalition splintered, with many staying home or voting Green in protest at the perceived ill-treatment of Bernie Sanders. The Trump campaign employed Cambridge Analytica to micro-target both groups with fake news to suppress their vote.

There is no suggestion that the same is happening this time, or that those voter groups would fall for the same suppression tactics. Democrat, or anti-Trump voters are super-motivated.


Can we learn from Florida’s early vote numbers?

The next post carries a health warning. Making assumptions based on early vote figures can go badly wrong. It has before in US elections. We cannot know for sure (a) whether these people are voting in line with their party registration or (b) whether they were certain to vote on election day anyway.

Nevertheless, I will give it a go! The numbers are so big that we must be able to get some sort of clue about what is happening now, and what will be needed on Tuesday.

In 2016, 9,420,039 voted in Florida, amounting to a 75% turnout. By end of play yesterday, 7,822,033 had already voted for 2020, amounting to 55.6% turnout.

Let’s make a rough projection, that turnout will rise by a tenth to 82.5%. That would take the total to 11,606,433. Leaving 3,784,400 yet to vote.

Now, to breakdown those already voted. 40% were registered Democrat, 37.9% Republican, 20.7% No Party Affiliation, 1.3% Minor Party.

Not every state registers by party affiliation but this research fits the signals from national polls that unaffiliated voters skew firmly towards Biden. In Florida, that group are always deemed critical.

This is an extrapolation of those numbers. When I tweeted this, a very well informed follower said he thought that the minor party share was too high. Bear that in mind.

Without endorsing those numbers, let’s work with them. If Biden leads by 1,129,792 and the aforementioned total estimate is accurate, Trump needs to win at least 2,457,096 out of 3,784,400. That equates to 64.92%.

That is a daunting challenge for Trump. Note too that experts on district polling such as Dave Wasserman persistently observe a ruinous swing away from Trump among seniors.

None of this is cast-iron proof that Biden will win Florida. They are, however, very strong signals that suggest he should be favourite. In fact, Trump remains ahead in the betting for this state at 1.855/6.

Note too that Florida isn’t even an essential win for Biden. He has multiple paths to the presidency, primarily via the Mid-West. Nor, apparently, are these trends from the Sunshine State than these two states, slightly further down his target list.

It is extremely hard to square what is happening with Trump’s odds at state or national level. Florida will provide the critical early signals on election night. If Biden wins this state, a consensus will swiftly emerge that he’s won the presidency.


Friday’s polls round-up

Numbers from pollsters rated B or better by Fivethirtyeight

NATIONAL

FOX (A-): BIDEN +8
IBD/TIPP (A/B): BIDEN +7

PENNSYLVANIA

PPP (B): BIDEN +7

NORTH CAROLINA

MARIST (A+): BIDEN +6

FLORIDA

PPP (B): BIDEN +7
YOUGOV (B): BIDEN +2

GEORGIA

LANDMARK (B): TRUMP +1

MICHIGAN

PPP (B): BIDEN +10


Thursday’s polls round-up

Numbers from pollsters rated B or better by Fivethirtyeight

NATIONAL

SUFFOLK (A): BIDEN +8
IBD/TIPP (A/B): BIDEN +5
YOUGOV (B): BIDEN +9

FLORIDA

MONMOUTH (A+): BIDEN +6
MARIST (A+): BIDEN +4
QUINNIPIAC (B+): BIDEN +3

PENNSYLVANIA

QUINNIPIAC (B+): BIDEN +7

NORTH CAROLINA

NYT/SIENA (A+): BIDEN +3
LOWELL (A/B): TIED

GEORGIA

PPP (B): BIDEN +2

TEXAS

LOWELL (A/B): TRUMP +1

OHIO

QUINNIPIAC (B+): BIDEN +5

IOWA

QUINNIPIAC (B+): TRUMP +1

MAINE-CD2

SURVEYUSA: BIDEN +3

NEW HAMPSHIRE

ARG (A/B): BIDEN +19
LOWELL (A/B): BIDEN +10


Wednesday’s polls round-up

Numbers from pollsters rated B or better by Fivethirtyeight

NATIONAL

IBD/TIPP (A/B): BIDEN +5
PUBLIC RELIGION RESEARCH (A/B): BIDEN +19
YOUGOV (B): BIDEN +11

GEORGIA

MONMOUTH (A+): BIDEN +4

MICHIGAN

NYT/SIENA: BIDEN +8
ABC/WAPO (A+): BIDEN +7

WISCONSIN

ABC/WAPO (A+): BIDEN +17
MARQUETTE (A/B): BIDEN +5


Georgia numbers offer a powerful signal

Joe Biden was campaigning in Georgia yesterday, making much of the fact that Democrat candidates are never expected to be there during the final week of an election campaign. A poll just out from A+ rated Monmouth University shows why.

Monmouth have him 4% up and that doesn’t look an outlier. Here’s the last 13 polls rated B/C or better from the state.

MONMOUTH (A+): BIDEN +4
CIVIQS (B/C): BIDEN +5
UNI OF GEORGIA (B/C): TIED
YOUGOV (B): TIED
LANDMARK (B): TRUMP +4
OPINION INSIGHT (A/B): BIDEN +4
MORNING CONSULT (B/C): TIED
GHY RESEARCH (B/C): BIDEN +7
NYT/SIENA (A+): TIED
EMERSON (A-): BIDEN +1
SURVEYUSA (A): BIDEN +2
QUINNIPIAC (B+): BIDEN +7
DATA FOR PROGRESS (B-): TIED

Why is this state especially significant? Of Democrat candidates, only Bill Clinton has won Georgia in the past 40 years. In any case, that 1992 success is an outlier, only made possible by the Reform Party taking 20% and splitting the Republican vote. Obama scored 4% higher in 2008 and still lost by 5%.

Georgia isn’t an essential Biden target. At best, it is fifth on his list, well below the trio of Mid-West targets he needs to almost certainly secure the presidency.

Can we trust these polls or is there a ‘shy Trump’ effect in play? Well, there are two simultaneous Senate races too without Trump’s name on the ballot. Democrats are ahead in both. They’ve also been buoyed by vast early turnout from black voters.

Trump nevertheless remains favourite to win it at 1.84/5. Another clear case of bettors distrusting the 2020 polls.

To read more about the swing states, check out my state-by-state guide to the most competitive 19 races.


2020 election smashes all-time betting record

We expected it to happen, but not this early. Betfair’s Next President market is now the biggest betting event of any kind in history, including sports with over £200M traded. The previous £199M record, set by Trump v Clinton four years ago, was smashed overnight.

Based on current and past trends, the total may well go beyond £400M. In 2016, 37% of the volume was traded after polls had closed.

Why is this happening? For me, the only legitimate explanation is the Trump effect.

The moment Trump exchanged reality TV for politics, engagement soared. That could be seen in record ratings for TV debates, primary turnout or social media trends. He is vastly more famous than any other politician and critically, engages those who previously paid less attention to politics. Everybody has an opinion!

That was immediately evident in the betting. Turnover on the 2016 election rose sixfold on 2012. Now it looks set to double again. This is an incredible era, both in the political and betting worlds.


Monday’s polls round-up

Numbers from pollsters rated B or better by Fivethirtyeight

NATIONAL

IBD/TIPP (A/B): BIDEN +7
PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES (B+): BIDEN +14
YOUGOV (B): BIDEN +12

PENNSYLVANIA

YOUGOV (B): BIDEN +8

MICHIGAN

YOUGOV (B): BIDEN +10

WISCONSIN

YOUGOV (B): BIDEN +9

TEXAS

NYT/SIENA (A+): TRUMP +4
YOUGOV (B): TRUMP +5


More grim poll signals for Trump

In less than 200 hours, the first results will start arriving. Over 60M people have voted already so the window for anything to change the game is diminishing rapidly. Unless the polls are spectacularly wrong, Trump is headed for a heavy defeat.

Today’s numbers make grim reading for the president. Nationwide, B-rated Yougov have him trailing Biden by 12%. The daily USC/Dornsife (B/C) tracker has the lead at 13%. Public Opinion Strategies (B+) have it at 14%.

Even the IBD/TIPP (A-) daily tracker, whose outlier numbers have been much more favourable to Trump, have him 7% down. In the middle, Morning Consult (B/C) are at 9%. All of these results would produce a Biden landslide.

Likewise in the states that Biden needs to win, he appears to be well ahead. Yougov have him 10%, 9% and 8% ahead respectively in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Three wins that will very likely be enough to win the electoral college.

However, those who believe the polls are badly wrong may point to a new survey from Insider Advantage (B-) showing Trump leading by 3% in Pennsylvania. It doesn’t fit the trend at all but who knows? Their rating is respectable.

Trump backers can also take some solace from some new Texas numbers. A+ rated NYT/Siena have him leading by 4% and Yougov say 5%. However Data for Progress (B-) have Biden leading by 1% and, notably, have fewer don’t knows or third party.

The fact we are even discussing Texas, where a massive early vote is exciting Democrats, shows how one-sided the polls are. This is ranked merely tenth on Biden’s target list and would probably propel him beyond 400 electoral college votes.


Democrats appear to build big early voting lead

Donald Trump voted in-person yesterday in Florida, or at least that’s what he said emerging from a polling station. Given that he claimed to have voted by mail back in August, that doesn’t add up.

The probable explanation is that this was an attempt by Trump to urge his supporters to vote early, because Republicans are terrified by the extraordinary numbers emerging. This Electproject is an excellent resource to keep track.

Nearly 60M people have voted already. As noted in my bet of the day piece regarding Texas, over 80% of the entire 2016 turnout in that state have now voted, with particular spikes in pro-Democrat counties such as Harris and Travis.

Likewise the numbers of African American voters in Georgia and North Carolina are extremely encouraging for Biden. Those states are both running at 65% of 2016 turnout.

Psephologists urge us not to draw firm conclusions from early data, and that probably explains why none of this has notably translated to the betting odds. Biden is still available at 3.412/5 for Texas, 2.3211/8 for Georgia and 1.855/6 in North Carolina.

It is absolutely true that most of these are merely early votes, that were already factored into calculations, to be balanced by votes on the day. However there are at least 3.5M new voters from the battleground states alone.

Turnout is going to rise massively. Just as it did in the mid-term House of Representatives Election – up to 50% from 36% in the equivalent 2014 contest. Just as we saw in the Democrat primary and various special elections throughout Trump’s first term – to his opponents’ advantage.

It is logical to assume early voting favours Democrats overall – even if each state is different. Their voters were overwhelmingly more committed to mail-in votes compared to Republican. They have organised towards this end.

We can conclude plenty from the partisan lean of the districts, or the demographics. A big rise in youth voters, for example, who lean strongly blue.

By polling day, we should have a pretty good idea of how many votes Trump needs to turn these races around, and it will be much higher than his 63M tally from 2016.

For example, imagine he repeats the 46.1% share from 2016 but turnout rises by 10% to around 150M – not an extreme estimate. That amounts to 69M votes – a rise of 6M. Note 46.1% wouldn’t be enough due to Biden’s share, in the absence of strong third parties.

I reckon he needs at least 47.5% of the popular vote. Were turnout to rise to a 155M total. He would need nearly 74M – 11M more than in 2016. Quite an ask for any incumbent. Let alone one whose voters were already extremely enthusiastic first time around. If you like his chances of doing so, 2.915/8 is available on Trump’s vote tally reaching 70M.


The state of play in the swing states

Ten days out, here’s how things stand in the states that will determine the electoral college. The most important state to watch is Pennsylvania, as it is very hard to envisage a path to victory for Trump without it.

The figures listed below are the current live forecast, according to Fivethirtyeight, and the implied chance according to Betfair odds. As in the Next President market, note how much better Trump’s chances are rated compared to the polls.

STATES CLINTON WON IN 2016

New Hampshire (4 electoral college votes)

Fivethirtyeight: Biden 87%, Trump 13%
Betfair: Biden 80%, Trump 20%

Nevada (6)

Fivethirtyeight: Biden 90%, Trump 10%
Betfair: Biden 78%, Trump 22%

Minnesota (10)

Fivethirtyeight: Biden 91%, Trump 9%
Betfair: Biden 76%, Trump 24%

STATES TRUMP WON IN 2016

Michigan (16)

Fivethirtyeight: Biden 91%, Trump 9%
Betfair: Biden 73%, Trump 27%

Wisconsin (10)

Fivethirtyeight: Biden 86%, Trump 14%
Betfair: Biden 69%, Trump 31%

Pennsylvania (20)

Fivethirtyeight: Biden 86%, Trump 14%
Betfair: Biden 68%, Trump 32%

Arizona (11)

Fivethirtyeight: Biden 66%, Trump 34%
Betfair: Biden 58%, Trump 42%

North Carolina (15)

Fivethirtyeight: Biden 66%, Trump 34%
Betfair: Biden 54%, Trump 34%

Florida (29)

Fivethirtyeight: Biden 70%, Trump 30%
Betfair: Trump 51%, Biden 49%

Georgia (16)

Fivethirtyeight: Biden 50%, Trump 50%
Betfair: Trump 57%, Biden 43%

Iowa (6)

Fivethirtyeight: Trump 51%, Biden 49%
Betfair: Trump 58%, Biden 42%

Ohio (18)

Fivethirtyeight: Trump 57%, Biden 43%
Betfair: Trump 66%, Biden 34%

Texas (38)

Fivethirtyeight: Trump 65%, Biden 35%
Betfair: Trump 71%, Biden 29%


Friday’s polls round-up

Numbers from pollsters rated B or better by Fivethirtyeight

NATIONAL

IBD/TIPP (A/B): BIDEN +5

PENNSYLVANIA

MUHLENBERG (A+): BIDEN +7

MICHIGAN

EPIC-MRA (B+): BIDEN +9
OPINION INSIGHT (A/B): BIDEN +9

GEORGIA

OPINION INSIGHT (A/B): BIDEN +4
LANDMARK (B): TRUMP +4

IOWA

OPINION INSIGHT (A/B): BIDEN +2

MONTANA

NYT/SIENA (A+): TRUMP +6


Record-breaking bet placed on Joe Biden

Volume on Betfair’s Next President market is through the roof. In the past 72 hours, over £20M has been traded. That figure equates to 12% of the entire figure matched in nearly four years since the market opened.

At this rate, it will inevitably become the biggest market in history, long before polling day. Note that when the previous record was set in 2016, 38% of the volume occurred after polls had closed.

In the meantime, one confident bettor has staked £500K on Biden to win at 1.538/15. For now at least, that is the biggest individual wager of the campaign.

It is a measure of Trump’s popularity with bettors that his price has held up amid a surge of pro-Biden money. All of the biggest ten trades of this election were for the Democrat. Yet Trump attracts more individual bets – around 70% across the industry as I understand.

Nevertheless trends in recent days suggest that the weight of money will eventually win out and drive Biden’s odds down. His previous surge coincided with a spike in liquidity and during this week’s avalanche, he’s shortened from 1.738/11 to 1.51/2.


Much improved debate performance from Trump

The debate has just finished. Set against the vitriolic climate in US politics in recent years, it was a triumph. The new rules worked. Interruptions were rare, and forgivable. Arguments were clearly stated and the discussion illuminated the vast differences in philosophy and agendas between the candidates.

I’ve watched every single Trump debate since the summer of 2015. This was easily his best ever performance. The first time he’s ever been disciplined. It may well help with that important segment of voters that lean Republican, have conservative instincts, yet can’t abide their erratic, anarchic leader.

The market agreed. It has been an extremely busy night on the exchange, with £2M matched for Next President since midnight. £9M over the past 24 hours. At the start of this debate, Biden was trading at 1.4740/85. That is now a 1.511/2 chance.

That said, Biden will be happy enough. He achieved his primary goal – avoiding any disasters. He came across as passionate and informed. On the two most important issues under discussion – healthcare and Covid – he won.

Biden’s positioning was clear. He’s the unity candidate, to bring America together, with a plan for Covid, healthcare and thousands of new green jobs. These were his most memorable lines.

I don’t view it like him. Red states v Blue states. We’re all the United States.

The difference between us is I see healthcare not as a right, but a privilege. People deserve to have affordable healthcare. Period. Period. Period.

Trump, in contrast, revived his old brand as the outsider businessman.

Why didn’t you do it (criminal justice reform) in eight years of government. I ran because of you…They’re all talk these politicians.

That always was Trump’s main selling point. That rhetoric cuts through. However Biden successfully framed the race as he would like, and seems to be the case with voters.

You know who I am. You know who he is. Our characters are on the ballot


Thursday’s polls round-up

Numbers from pollsters rated B or better by Fivethirtyeight

NATIONAL

IBD/TIPP (A/B): BIDEN +4
QUINNIPIAC (B+): BIDEN +10

MICHIGAN

PPP (B): BIDEN +7

PENNSYLVANIA

PPP (B): BIDEN +5

MINNESOTA

SURVEYUSA (A): BIDEN +6

VIRGINIA

ABC/WAPO: BIDEN +11

KANSAS

NYT/SIENA (A+): TRUMP +7


Wednesday’s polls round-up

Numbers from pollsters rated B or better by Fivethirtyeight

NATIONAL

SURVEY USA (A): BIDEN +10
IBD/TIPP (A/B): BIDEN +3
YOUGOV: (B): BIDEN +9

IOWA

MONMOUTH (A+): BIDEN +3
NYT/SIENA (A+): BIDEN +3
EMERSON (A-): TIED

PENNSYLVANIA

SUFFOLK (A): BIDEN +6
QUINNIPIAC (B+): BIDEN +8

TEXAS

QUINNIPIAC (B+): TIED

ALASKA

PPP (B): TRUMP +5

KANSAS

PPP (B): TRUMP +12

Trump storms out of interview

Love or hate him, the one thing about which everyone can agree is that Trump news is never boring. Even the most dedicated chroniclers of this era cannot keep up.

Top of the news cycle, I think, is Trump’s walkout from an interview with ‘Sixty Minutes’. The details remain unclear but we know there was a huge bust-up and Trump immediately went after veteran presenter Lesley Stahl on Twitter.

Whatever actually happened in that situation, it must be doubtful many will believe Trump was offended by any lack of mask-wearing, given that he frequently mocks others for wearing them.

Anticipation for the interview, to be aired on Sunday night, is now heightened. Speculation will inevitably be rife. Will they play the uncut version? Could the footage be ruinous for the president? Will it vindicate his attacks on the media?

Will Trump release his version? He has form in this respect, walking out of a BBC interview, then releasing an edited version.

Ensuring there is never a dull moment, the New York Times released another bombshell story last night. This involves their investigation into Trump’s taxes. They’ve discovered a secret bank account in China and, embarrassingly, higher taxes paid there than in the USA.

In any normal era, these two stories would be seen as dramatic gamechangers. The market would be rocked. I doubt anyone believes they will. This is normal nowadays. Who can remember last week’s headlines? The Woodward Tapes? Russian bounties on US troops? Impeachment? Mueller?

Opinion has been entrenched for years. They’ve long decided whether they care about these Trump scandals or not. Americans are voting in record numbers already and are unlikely to be swayed either way. Nevertheless, the entertainment value never falls short.

Tuesday’s polls round-up

Numbers from pollsters rated B or better by Fivethirtyeight

NATIONAL

NYT/SIENA (A+): BIDEN +9
IBD/TIPP (A/B): BIDEN +3
YOUGOV: (B): BIDEN +11

GEORGIA

NYT/SIENA (A+): TIED

FLORIDA

NORTH FLORIDA UNIVERSITY (A/B): BIDEN +1

NORTH CAROLINA

ABC/WAPO (A+): BIDEN +2

ARIZONA

DATA ORBITAL (A/B): BIDEN +5

KENTUCKY

MASON-DIXON (A/B): TRUMP +17


Pennsylvania ruling a big boost for Biden

A critical ruling involving the single most important important state has gone the Democrat’s way. Pennsylvania’s Supreme Court had granted an extension to count mail-in votes due to this year’s unprecedented demand. Republicans asked the US Supreme Court to intervene and pause it, thus potentially meaning vast numbers of votes would be left uncounted.

The extension ensures all votes post-marked before election day and received within three days will be counted. Pausing it would have disadvantaged Democrats, whose voters are much likelier to vote by mail this time.

The Court was split 4-4, with Chief Justice Roberts (a Conservative) voting alongside the Liberals. It wasn’t the first time – Roberts also opposed the Trump administration on other important recent rulings.

The importance of Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral college votes cannot be overstated. Without them, Trump’s path to victory is unbelievably narrow. In the state betting, Biden remains hot favourite at 1.454/9.


Biden odds falling fast

After eight straight days of the market moving towards Trump, Joe Biden bounced back today. From 59% this morning, his implied chance is up to 63%.

Considering how far the market had moved previously, this may just be a correction, or even a temporary surge. A lot of the pro-Trump money has come overnight and he’s still a long way short of the earlier 70% peak.

Alternatively, it might reflect doubts that the Hunter Biden allegations are credible, or move the needle. I do think that hype influenced the Trump gamble over the weekend.

There have been very few high-grade surveys in recent days and I’m told it will be a quiet week, until after Thursday night’s debate.

The PRRI numbers listed below caused quite a stir though! Whilst one should regard an 18% Biden lead as a massive outlier, there have been several in the low teens. Anything in that range amounts to an electoral massacre.

For all the talk from Trump backers about polls wrongly understating him, they could just as easily be understating Biden.

Monday’s polls round-up

Numbers from pollsters rated B or better by Fivethirtyeight

NATIONAL

IBD/TIPP (A/B): BIDEN +6
PRRI: (A/B): BIDEN +18


Obama to join the campaign trail

The dramatic, counter-intuitive betting trends continued overnight. Joe Biden is now out to 1.695/7 – an implied 59% chance. That rating has fallen 12% in eight days, and 3% since yesterday.

The weekend was very quiet on the polling front so we can probably expect a spate of them over the next 48 hours, from which we can gauge whether anything has actually changed in the race. There have been no signals, or hints from experts pouring over internal data.

However if there are worries in the Biden camp, they will be delighted to learn that their number one surrogate is hitting the campaign trail this week on his behalf. Barack Obama will start in Philadephia on Wednesday, trying to help get out the vote.

Obama remains hugely respected. He left office with a high approval rating and has been repeatedly voted America’s most respected man. His wife Michelle, also expected to campaign, often wins the female version.

When the former President excoriated Trump at the Democrat Convention, the news cycle paused to hear his words. He outshone Kamala Harris in her acceptance speech. Watch here.

Furthermore, turnout in Philadelphia may determine the result. I spent a lot of time there in 2016 and was told repeatedly that the Democrat operation was weak under Clinton, compared to Obama’s campaigns. She lost the state of Pennsylvania by merely 22K votes. They will be ultra-determined to avoid making the same mistakes.


Trump’s surge in the betting continues

Donald Trump is backing trading where he was the day after the first presidential debate as an extraordinary gamble gathers pace. One week ago, Biden’s odds hit a new low at 1.412/5. Today they’re at 1.654/6. Trump’s odds are into 2.588/5.

I’ve never seen a market like this, certainly in politics. Biden is 10% up in the polls and way ahead in the states he needs. More so than any recent predecessor. Here’s how all the US elections since Betfair’s inception stood at the 16-day stage.

2016: Hillary Clinton was 6% up in the polls, trading at 1.211/5.
2012: Barack Obama was 2% up, trading at 1.51/2
2008: Barack Obama was 6% up, trading at 1.152/13
2004: George W Bush was 3% up, trading at 1.715/7.

Even if one distrusts the polls, with every day they pass without meaningful indication of a Trump comeback, Biden’s odd should logically shorten or at least stay the same. Instead his implied chance of winning has fallen from 70% to 60%.

What’s the explanation? I reckon a combination of his particular celebrity factor, the excitement his rallies generate among supporters and the Hunter Biden scandal. See below for more on that.


Saturday’s polls round-up

Numbers from pollsters rated B or better by Fivethirtyeight

NATIONAL

IBD/TIPP (A/B): BIDEN +7


Will ‘Lock Them Up’ work second time around?

It has been clear from Trump rallies and his debate performances that his strategy is a ‘greatest hits’ campaign. Obamagate, Crooked Hillary, Mexico paying for the wall, the ‘rigged system’ and ‘Deep State’ are all staples.

Following the Hunter Biden allegations, another 2016 favourite is back.

For the record, ‘Lock Her Up’ was originally concocted by Trump’s former manager Paul Manafort, in the 2010 Ukraine election on behalf of Viktor Yanukovych. (They did actually lock Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko up).

Evidently it has proven a winning strategy and the bettors driving Trump’s odds down to 2.789/5 in recent hours believe it will work again. This is the ‘October Surprise’. Or at least one of them.

One word of warning. As explained earlier this year in my Masterclass series on political betting, re-fighting the last election tends to prove a bad strategy. No two electoral situations are ever exactly the same and it is hard to pull off the exact same trick twice.


The Trump gamble gathers further steam

The last 24 hours have seen a further swing in the betting towards parity. At 1.584/7, Joe Biden is still rated 63% likely to win the election but that is down from 70% last Sunday and from 66% since yesterday.

What is going on? There is no real poll evidence that the race is even tightening, let alone close.

There are two obvious drivers. First as Max Liu reported yesterday, the move has coincided with his first week of rallies after leaving hospital.

The second driver, I suspect, is a reaction to the Hunter Biden claims. The New York Post are running a spate of exclusives, claiming to be based on the younger Biden’s e-mails and text messages. Among other things, they allege corruption and drug abuse.

I will discuss this further later in this blog, but note that most respectable media aren’t touching the story. The claims are denied and it seems the information was hacked.

Remember, Trump was impeached after blackmailing the Ukranian government over military aid, whilst his allies sought to dig dirt on Biden’s son.

It is 2016 all over again and I wonder how much this will change the agenda over the final weeks? Transferring scrutiny and scandal to Hillary Clinton probably had a decisive impact.


Friday’s polls round-up

Numbers from pollsters rated B or better by Fivethirtyeight

NATIONAL

IBD/TIPP (A/B): BIDEN +6

ALASKA

NYT/SIENA (A+): TRUMP +6


Town Hall takeaways unlikely to help Trump

Last night was supposed to be the second debate, in a Town Hall style event. Instead we got two separate Town Hall events, on different networks, coinciding with one another.

First to say I only saw the final half hour or so of the Biden event, so something really dramatic may have happened before that. If so, it also escaped my attention on social media.

I will be amazed if that event cut through at all. It was a conventional event with a conventional candidate, pushing conventional messages. Biden is a pro and conducted himself well in that environment again. Politeness, empathy with the audience being the key.

That can’t compete for eyeballs with a president who totally dominates the questioner, whether moderator or audience. Predictably, Trump spent the evening boasting about the brilliance of his administration, pushing conspiracy theories and arguing with the moderator.

Given that he told Bob Woodward in February that he understood the Covid threat, one audience member asked, why didn’t you put more measures in place? We did an amazing job, said Trump, unlike Biden. He claimed twice that 85% of mask-wearers catch Covid.

Asked about Qanon, Trump refused to disavow the conspiracy cult labelled a domestic terror threat by the FBI, saying he didn’t know much about them other than they were against paedophiles. This is a talking point to watch in the closing weeks.

At the end, Trump received plenty of applause from the audience. One woman called him ‘handsome’. His fans will have loved it. His opponents were doubtless tearing their hair out. It was just another madcap and yet predictable night of the Trump presidency. Unlikely to move any voters from their entrenched positions.

Therein lies the insanity in Trump scheduling that event at the last minute. He needs a gamechanger. The best chance of that happening was Biden stumbling in the limelight of his own event.

Instead Trump overshadowed him. The only way that strategy would make sense were if he used the opportunity to pivot. To try and convert some opponents as polls say he urgently needs to do, in sizeable numbers. Instead, he doubled down and and that usually has the effect of entrenching opinion, which is majority negative about him.


Thurday’s polls round-up

Numbers from pollsters rated B or better by Fivethirtyeight

NATIONAL

MARIST (A+): BIDEN +11
NBC/WSJ (A-): BIDEN +11
IBD/TIPP (A/B): BIDEN +8
LOWELL (A/B): BIDEN +10
YOUGOV (B): BIDEN +10

ARIZONA

MONMOUTH (A+): BIDEN +6

SOUTH CAROLINA

SIENA (A+): TRUMP +8


How will tonight’s TV events play out?

Tonight was supposed to be the second TV debate. That head-to-head event was cancelled when Trump contracted Covid and rejected the option of a virtual debate. We will, however, get a chance to watch both candidates on TV tonight although it will require two screens.

Rather than go head-to-head, Biden and Trump will appear simultaneously on different TV networks at different Town Hall events. Biden is on ABC, from Philadephia. Trump on NBC, from Miami. The latter network came in for much criticism after announcing theirs at the last minute and thus depriving all but the most engaged of voters the chance to compare both candidates.

We discussed whom a third debate might favour in the latest episode of our Politics…Only Bettor podcast. The general consensus is that Biden has more to lose, given his lead, and that certainly applies if they do appear head-to-head on the 22nd October. I’m sceptical tonight will change anything though.

With this bizarre decision to show the events simultaneously, surely America’s two polarised tribes will largely tune in to see their favourite. Rather than illuminating the choice before voters, this set-up smacks of a confirmation bias festival.

Unless one of them makes a major gaffe, I can’t see either event being prominent in the news cycle for more than a few hours. Last week’s VP debate didn’t cut through beyond the engaged minority and, apart from general derision of the chaos, few are still discussing the first debate, which was actually very consequential and significantly moved the odds.

Another problem for viewers is that unlike the first debate, these Town Halls won’t be syndicated across rival networks. The combined audience share is unlikely to be anywhere near that 73M figure.

UK viewers will certainly be able to watch online via ABC News Live or NBC News Live. According to the current schedule on Sky Digital, neither event is covered on TV but I suspect that will change. CNBC (Channel 504) are covering the Trump event in the States while Sky News are owned by the same company as NBC.

Check our daily Twitter thread on the @BetfairExchange feed for updates on this schedule, and I’ll be live-tweeting during at least one of the events.

For what its worth, I’m confident Biden is much better suited to this format. He did well engaging directly with voters at a CNN Town Hall last month, a day or so after Trump had drawn criticism for his tone deaf responses to direct questions about Covid.


Wednesday’s polls round-up

Numbers from pollsters rated B or better by Fivethirtyeight

NATIONAL

IBD/TIPP (A/B): BIDEN +8
YOUGOV (B): BIDEN +10

MICHIGAN

EPIC-MRA (B+): BIDEN +9

NORTH CAROLINA

NYT/SIENA (A+): BIDEN +4

GEORGIA

SURVEY USA (A): BIDEN +2
QUINNIPIAC (B+): BIDEN +7

OHIO

QUINNIPIAC (B+): BIDEN +1

NEW HAMPSHIRE

SUFFOLK (A): BIDEN +10


Blow for Trump as Obamagate proves a dud

One argument for backing a Trump comeback has been expectation that he would produce an ‘October Surprise’ to damage Joe Biden and change the electoral weather. A 2020 equivalent of the ‘Podesta e-mails’ that undermined Hillary Clinton and, critically, altered the late news cycle in 2016.

For years, Trump has been railing about ‘Obamagate’ – the claim that the former administration illegally spied on his campaign in 2016, to engineer what the President likes to call the ‘Russia hoax’. He raised it as recently as the last week and said yet again that Hillary Clinton should be jailed.

Attorney General Bill Barr ordered an investigation into the ‘unmasking’ of members of Trump’s campaign, whose names were redacted in intelligence documents. Most notably Trump’s initial pick for National Security Advisor Michael Flynn – who resigned over his Russia ties and has since been convicted on unregistered foreign agent charges.

There was serious speculation – from both supporters and staunch critics – of major arrests of political opponents before the election. Trump surrogates had claimed they had the damning documents signed by Biden himself.

This investigation appears to have imploded in quite humiliating fashion. Attorney John Bash failed to produce any criminal charges and there won’t even be a public report. It seems that, in fact, any such report would exonerate Obama administration officials and has thus been buried.

Does this move votes? No. I doubt a single one. The significance lies in what it fails to achieve, at a time when Trump urgently needs a gamechanger. Its another reminder that this isn’t a re-run of 2016. Attempts since to generate dirt on his opponents have achieved nothing beyond his own impeachment. The same tricks don’t work second time around.


Tuesday’s polls round-up

From tonight, we’re going to add this round-up of all the day’s most significant polls. The rating in brackets, eg (B+) applies to their rating from fivethirtyeight.com, based on past performance. Firms without a rating, or rated ‘B-‘ or lower, are excluded.

NATIONAL

IBD/TIPP (A-): BIDEN +9
YOUGOV (B): BIDEN +8

NORTH CAROLINA

MONMOUTH (A+): BIDEN +3


Was it merely Trump’s rally that moved the market?

The sudden market move for Donald Trump lasted overnight. He’s still trading around 3.052/1, from 3.45 on Sunday afternoon.

We’ve had a few hours to find an explanation or to see whether it was a signal of impending news. Nothing dramatic has materialised on the polling front.

On reflection, my conclusion is that the dynamic is purely psychological. Indeed, I think that explains the betting trends of this unique election cycle.

In every previous election, not just the USA, the betting was primarily driven by polls. Not to the letter by any means – markets are more forward-thinking – but polls were the most credible and important indicator.

The polls have been consistently terrible for Trump. He’s trailed Biden for five years in head-to-heads by substantial margins. Yet his implied chance on Betfair has always been much lower than even the most conservative prediction model estimates.

The most common explanation is that bettors fear a repeat of 2016. That may explain reluctance to steam into Biden at odds-on, but not the two recent, massive gambles on Trump. The first came during and after the Republican Convention and then last night, just as he was about to stage his first rally since getting Covid-19.

Is this simply an effect of Trump supporters feeling pumped up at specific moments of the campaign? This makes more sense than other explanations.

Anecdotally, I sense a much greater psychological dimension than usual. Trump supporters are bullish, ultra-confident, dismissive of ‘fake’ polls and media. Trump opponents are terrified that either history will repeat itself, or that he will rig the election.

If that is the case, it is bound to affect the betting.


Big market move for Trump tonight

Ahead of tonight’s rally, a substantial gamble on Trump in developing. In shortening from 3.3512/5 to 3.052/1 today, he’s reversed all of Joe Biden’s gain on our Next President market from yesterday – which in itself was one of the biggest moves all year.

What lies behind it? Perhaps something significant is about to break but as it stands, I’m at a loss. If that something is a poll, it would need to be a real outlier. Today’s numbers were predictably grim for the President, in line with recent trends.

See below – each pollster’s rating from Fivethirtyeight is in brackets.

NATIONAL DAILY TRACKERS

IBD/TIPP (A/B): BIDEN +10
USC/DORNSIFE (B/C): BIDEN +13

PENNSYLVANIA

IPSOS (B-): BIDEN +7

WISCONSIN

SIENA (A+): BIDEN +10
IPSOS (B-): BIDEN +7

MICHIGAN

SIENA (A+): BIDEN +8


Trump returns to campaign trail in Florida

Around midnight, President Trump will host his first campaign rally since being infected with Covid-19. He will address supporters at Orlando Sanford Airport in the ultimate swing state of Florida.

The rally comes after his doctor Sean Conley signed off a memo saying he was ‘no longer a Covid transmission risk’. The White House still refuses to say when he last tested negative but Trump told supporters in an audio message that he’s ‘tested totally negative’, suggested he has ‘immunity’ and therefore ‘can’t get it’. Twitter, however, ruled the below a breach of their rules.

Regardless of whether this rally is a smart, or responsible, move, the choice of venue is no surprise. No serious analyst believe he can win the electoral college without Florida but the polls look grim. Biden leads by an average 4.5% and by 11% in one respected survey last week.

More specifically the airport is in Seminole County and part of the famous I-4 corridor. Regarded as the key to winning the state, this is a ‘bellwether’ region – proven a reliable indicator of the national picture in previous elections – and home to precisely the sort of soft-Biden/undecided voters he needs to convert.